Defence Researched Institute in India
Posted on | 30-Oct-2015

ENVIRONMENT SCAN –26 OCT 2015

CHINA Col C Madhwal, VSM

Will Respond to US Incursions in South China Sea with all Means, China Warns: China's military will take "all necessary" measures in response to any future US Navy incursions into what it considers its territorial waters around islands in the South China Sea, a defense ministry spokesman said.

The statement by Col. Yang Yujun followed the sailing of a US guided missile destroyer within 12 nautical miles (22 kilometers) of one of the islands newly created by China in the strategically vital region. The US refuses to recognize the man-made islets as deserving of sovereign territory status.

Yang reiterated Beijing's claim that the USS Lassen violated Chinese sovereignty and international law, although the sail-by appeared to fall under internationally allowed "innocent passage" rules. Yang gave no details of China's claims, and offered no specifics about how Beijing would respond in the future.

The Chinese side took no immediate action during the Lassen's sail-past on Tuesday, but strenuously protested the maneuver.  In recent years when China has asserted what it considers its sovereignty rights or its right to monitor and control navigation in the South China Sea or the East China Sea, US acts of defiance against those claims have been met with protests but not military action.

Yang said the commander of the Chinese navy, Adm. Wu Shengli, would present China's "solemn position" on the issue in a video conference with the US head of naval operations, Adm. John Richardson. Both officers initiated the meeting to discuss recent operations in the South China Sea as well as naval ties, the US official said. It will be the third such video teleconference between the countries' naval chiefs.

"We would urge the US side not to continue down the wrong path," Defence Ministry spokesman Yang Yujun told a regular briefing. "But if they do, we will take all necessary measures in accordance with the need."

Chinese President Xi Jinping will next week visit Vietnam, another vocal claimant in the South China Sea, and Singapore, while Chinese Defence Minister Chang Wanquan will attend a meeting of Southeast Asian defence ministers in Malaysia.

The patrol was the most significant US challenge yet to territorial limits China claims around its artificial islands in one of the world's busiest sea lanes. "Neither the US nor China desires a military conflict, but the key problem is that the core interests of both sides collide in the South China Sea," said Ni Lexiong, a naval expert at the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law.  "It's hard to see either side backing down."

Wrap Up: President Xi Jinping’s UK Visit: The last state visit to the UK from China took place in 2005 under President Hu Jintao; this visit was the first for President Xi Jinping, head of the Communist Party of China. 

Both countries committed themselves to closer security cooperation in the form of a cyber agreement, both assuring that they would abstain from espionage activity aimed at unmasking of commercial secrets and intellectual property from their counterpart; a similar deal was brokered between China and the U.S. last month. Moreover, the UK government stressed its conviction to find a solution to the Syrian crisis, which excludes Bashar Al-Assad from the diplomatic table; Cameron appealed to Xi to not align with Russia’s position when it is time to vote under the UN framework. 

This Chinese-UK meeting has also been interpreted to be the foreshadowing to a prearrangement that would provide backing for the UK economy in the event of a “Brexit” following the polls suggestion in a major increase of “out” votes during the last few weeks. 

Xi also  articulated his apprehension of a re-emerging bipolarisation between Russia and the West over the Ukraine conflict, denouncing bloc-formations between both parties. 

The most spectacular economic deal concluded in the bilateral talks concerned the Hinkley Point nuclear power station; a Chinese state-owned company will invest £6bn in the nuclear station, which is due to be built in Somerset by 2025. Moreover, new air links will be established between Manchester and China in order to bolster the economy of the northern English town and simplify travels between both countries.  Alongside those flagship announcements, other collective oil and gas projects were finalized in London, the concluded deals amounting to a total of $62 billion during the four-day visit.

Just three years ago, such bilateral agreements appeared to be impossible. The Chinese government felt provoked by Cameron’s meeting with the Dalai Lama in 2012, consequently leading to a one-year freeze in UK-China diplomatic ties that made trade negotiations unthinkable. Turning towards China again was a strategic manoeuvre initiated by Chancellor George Osborne, who saw the potential for China to become the UK’s second biggest trading partner after the US by 2025. The “Osborne doctrine” depends on the assumption that the British service sector will benefit from closer cooperation with the Chinese market. The UK was the first G7 country to become a member of the new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, signalling its willingness to become permanently engaged with financial undertakings on the Asian continent. Now, the UK invests more in China than any other European country and, in return, the UK is China’s biggest outward investment market.

China to End One-Child Policy and Allow Two:  China has decided to end its decades-long one-child policy, the state-run Xinhua news agency reports. Couples will now be allowed to have two children, it said, citing a statement from the Communist Party.

The controversial policy was introduced nationally in 1979, to slow the population growth rate. It is estimated to have prevented about 400 million births. However concerns at China's ageing population led to pressure for change.

Couples who violated the one-child policy faced a variety of punishments, from fines and the loss of employment to forced abortions. The decision to allow families to have two children was designed "to improve the balanced development of population'' and to deal with an aging population.

Currently about 30% of China's population is over the age of 50. The total population of the country is around 1.36 billion.

The Communist Party began formally relaxing national rules two years ago, allowing couples in which at least one of the pair is an only child to have a second child. Correspondents say that despite the relaxation of the rules, many couples may opt to only have one child, as one-child families have become the social norm. Critics say that even a two-child policy will not boost the birth rate enough. And for those women who want more than two children, nor will it end the state's insistence on the right to control their fertility, he adds.

UNITED STATES

Gp Capt GD Sharma, VSM (Retd)

Pakistani PM visit of United States, specific instructions issued by the US President Obama on adoption day of Iran Nuclear deal and President aspirant Mrs.Hillary Clinton eleven hours grilling by the Congress committee were the main news highlights of the last fortnight.

PM’s Visit of United States.  PM, Nawaz Sharif’s visit generated lot of interest in India mainly about possible fall out of US- Pak Nuclear deal which western media reported is likely to be discussed. Though, the initial reaction to this news was negative in India as it was perceived as  an equation of Pakistan  to  Indo- US level   but ,later  reaction  turned positive after  a report in media  that with the deal,  United States  is aiming to  restrain the growth as  well  as control  Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal  whose size  has  already  reached dangerous proportion by some estimates  to the    fifth  place  in the  ranking of  the world. The major concern is Pakistan’s deployment of the Tactical Nuclear Weapons (TNW) which has been developed to check imaginary   India’s cold start doctrine whose existence has been denied many times over by the both political and military leadership of India. The major worry to India and the world at large is that TNW proliferation at the military field level   could make them attractive to the terror outfits that already have free run in Pakistan and regularly strike Pakistan’s military establishments at will. Further, associated poor command and control of the Tactical Nuclear Weapon will lower the nuclear threshold in the region.

The possibility of US stake in Pak nuclear weapon programme created negative reaction in Pakistan and both political and military establishment denied to enter in to any such nuclear deal. In other words, Pak PM visit mainly turned to be a merely a curtsey visit and did not achieve anything of substance as United States refused to be drawn in the in the mediatory role to solve Kashmir Issue. However, Pakistan’s tirade largely was neutralized by Free Baluchistan protests and all effort to link India to this movement was rejected by United States.

Adoption Day.  18 Oct 15 ( Sunday ) was the adoption day  for the nuclear deal  which came 90  days after  the United Nations  Security council endorsed the agreement reached between Iran and P5+1. On this day, Iran   began taking all necessary steps to restrain its nuclear programme whereas, P5+ 1 nations will take steps to lift sanctions on Iran. President Obama accordingly gave instructions to the State, Treasury and Energy departments to give necessary effect to US commitments with respect to the deal.  The waivers from the sanction will not take effect until the “Implementation day”   after Iran confirms completion of all action and verification by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Iran nuclear deal was an example of   coercive economic diplomacy succeeding in changing the conduct of the nation which is perceived dangerous for well-being of the world.

Congress Committee Hearing of Mrs. Hillary Clinton.  The congress committee hearing   by a republican sponsored panel was meant to dent Hillary Clinton chances in the forthcoming Presidential election in which she is continues to be a serious and a favourite contender. Hillary Clinton have already been investigated  by seven such committees which investigated  an attack on US consulate in Benghazi , Libya  which led to the death of ambassador Chris Stevens and three other embassy staff   but, till now they could not find anything  new .

From the list of contenders from the Democrats and Republican party, Hillary Clinton seems most likely to win especially as now Vice President Joe Biden has ruled himself out from running for the Presidency.

 As for India, we don’t   expect any change in Geo-strategic outlook of America with change of the President but, unlike others candidates, Hillary Clinton   is well aware of the American priority in East Asia/South Asia. She is known to have strong views on Chinese assertive behavior and Pakistan’s role as harbinger of terror    and terror outfits hence; they could expect strong handling from her. During her presidency, India could hope to build closer relationship with United States

RUSSIA

Col Anadi Dhaundiyal

Putin says Assad 'Could Work with Rebels against IS. Speaking at the twelfth annual Valdai Discussion Club meeting in Sochi on 22 Oct 15, President Putin stated:-

            (a)       Iran.  Iran’s nuclear problem has been solved. From Iran, there is no threat and there never had been. The only reason that was used by U.S.—to start     building the Missile Defense Shield—disappeared. We [Russia] might have expected that a system of MDS development to be halted. Some days ago, the first tests of USA’s MDS were conducted in Europe. What does that mean? It means that when we were arguing with our American partners we were right. Russia was right from the beginning that the American Missile Defense Shield     program was being developed with the goal to destroy strategic balance and to have a way to dictate her power to everyone. They were trying to deceive us, and  the whole world, once again. And, to put it simply, we were lied to.

(b)       Moderate Terrorists. To the notion of America helping the “moderate  opposition” in Syria, Mr. Putin responded that the division of “moderate” and    “non-moderate” leads to the empowerment of Islamic terrorists. We shouldn’t     play with words here and divide the terrorists into moderate and non-moderate.  Armaments the U.S. gave to the “moderate oppositionists” inevitably ended up in the hands of ISIL fighters—the “moderate” fighters, supported by the U.S., desert to ISIL camp with “orchestra’s greetings.

            (c)        Air Defence. On the possible transfer of anti-air defense missile systems by the U.S. to the anti-Assad forces, Mr. Putin said, “I hope this is not going to happen. This will create danger also for American pilots. American leaders are sane people, after all.”

            (d)       Assad Visit.  Mr. Putin also unveiled the secrecy behind his talks with Syria’s Bashar al-Assad. “I asked him, what would be your attitude if we will find in Syria even the armed opposition that would be ready to stand against and really fight against ISIL? What your attitude will be if we will help their efforts in the fight against terrorism, the same way we support the Syrian army? He             answered: Positive.”

            (e)       Meeting with FMs of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and US. It was timed ahead of the meeting on 23 Oct in Vienna.

Comments.

            (a)       Iran. Mr Putin has stated the obvious.

            (b)       Moderate Terrorists. The US strategy is guided by US interests,however the arming of militia, as seen in Afghanistan, Libya etc has resulted in long term strife and continued struggle in the region.

            (c)        Air Defence. Mr Putin has apparently preempted US strategy of arming  the militia with AD weapons, as done with Afghan Taliban during the Soviet occupation. Repeated media bytes could prevent such arming by US which would have been designed to fail the Russian strategy in Syria.

            (d)       Assad Visit. Mr Putin aims to inform the western public that cooperation   with Mr Assad could be a possibility.

Syria Talks. There was a meeting in Vienna of FMs of US (John Kerry), Saudi Arabia, Turkey and, of Russia (Sergei Lavrov). Mr Kerry told reporters "What we agreed to do today is to consult with all parties and aim to reconvene, hopefully as early as next Friday (30 Oct), with a broader meeting in order to explore whether there is sufficient common ground to advance a meaningful political process”. He did not rule out participation by Iran. Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said Friday's meeting had failed to achieve consensus over the future of Assad. Kerry, too, acknowledged wide differences with Moscow and Tehran over the future of the Syrian leader. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the Kremlin wanted Syria to prepare for parliamentary and presidential elections. He also said that Russia's air force would be ready to help Western-backed Free Syrian Army rebels, if it knew where they were.

Comments.

            (a)       The US secretary was keen to assume the charge of key voice in the meeting. A first ever, probably on Russian advice, Iran is being spoken to on  Syrian affairs. Iran has not been invited to previous international peace    conferences on Syria, all of which ended in failure, while the war, which has so    far killed more than 250,000 people and driven millions from their homes, has raged on. The U.S. position in the past has been that Tehran could play a part in Syrian diplomacy but only if it was prepared to act in a way Washington viewed    as constructive.

            (b)       Russia has long maintained that Iran should be included in Syrian  peacemaking. Lavrov said he hoped more Iran, as well as Egypt, would be invited to the next round of talks. Russia is keen to have allies on the table while it seeks to increase its influence in global affairs.

Russia- Ukraine. German Chancellor Ms Angela Merkel hosted Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk in Berlin on 23 Oct 15. At a joint news conference with Yatsenyuk she said “The sanctions are coupled to implementation of the Minsk accord. That won’t change even if it takes longer to make the Minsk accord a reality.”

Comments. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is signaling to Russian President Vladimir Putin that she’ll stand firm on defending Ukraine, even at the risk of denying herself a possible ally in stemming Europe’s refugee crisis. That contrasts with members of Merkel’s government and the U.S. administration, who are suggesting it’s time to move on. In the long term, if the Ukraine conflict gets frozen at this level and Putin doesn’t escalate, then of course it becomes increasingly difficult for western countries to maintain the same level of political capital, to make the ‘Sanctions’ case again and again. Syria’s war has emerged as the biggest threat to Merkel’s government this year as her open-arms stance toward Germany bound war refugees is eroding her public support. While Merkel has rejected backing off EU sanctions on Russia, which are scheduled to be renewed in Brussels in January, others in her government question whether that policy can hold as violence in the Middle East spirals. Secretary of State John Kerry lauded Merkel’s diplomatic efforts to help halt the fighting in Ukraine, saying President Barack Obama’s administration would prefer to have the conflict out of the way.

Russia Japan Relations. Post Putin- Shinzo Abe meeting on the sidelines of the 70th session of the UN General Assembly, deputy foreign ministers Igor Morgulov and Shinsuke Sugiyama met on 08 Oct. While the dialogue of deputy foreign ministers started in search of an armistice pending since 1945, Tokyo reiterated its will to receive an official visit from Russian President Vladimir Putin before the end of 2015. Russia indicated that matter can be settled only after Tokyo admits the historical realities. The issue of the Southern Kuril Islands, the name given by Russia, and Iturup, Kunashir, Shikotan and Habomai ('northern territories', as per Japan), is the main obstacle to the full normalization of bilateral ties and the signing of the armistice, the lack of which keeps technically both sides at war. Tokyo now considers a possible meeting between Prime Minister Shinzo Abe with the Russian president "on the sidelines" of the Asia-Pacific summit in Milano in November.

Comments. Russia appears in no hurry to sign the armistice as long as the South Kuril Islands are not contest from Russian control. Mr Shinzo Abe is keen to resolve differences with Russia and South Korea.

AFGHANISTAN

Capt Ranjit Seth                             

Russia's Involvement in Afghanistan.  Russia is stepping up its military and security involvement in Afghanistan following NATO’s withdrawal as well as the dramatic advances by the Taliban and Islamic State. Russia however remains wary of the Afghan quagmire, with memories still fresh of the disastrous 1979-89 war. Russian leaders are alarmed at the growing threat ISIS poses. They say it has established international training camps in Afghanistan, and they are concerned at the prospect of jihadis infiltrating the former Soviet states of central Asia and Russia’s mainly Muslim Caucasus region. The Taliban’s recent temporary capture of the strategically important city of Kunduz was particularly unnerving, which was seen as a direct threat to the northern border.

Addressing a Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) summit in Kazakhstan last week, President Vladimir Putin said the situation in Afghanistan was “close to critical”.

The CIS summit agreed to create a joint border task force following earlier warnings from Tajikistan’s president, Emomali Rahmon, that fighting was going on along more than 60% of the Tajik border with Afghanistan. Russia has begun sending military reinforcements, including attack helicopters, to its large Tajikistan military base.

Russia has also reportedly agreed to a plea from Abdul Rashid Dostum, the Russian-trained veteran warlord who is now the first vice-president of Afghanistan, to supply Kabul with helicopter gunships and other heavy weapons. Dostum visited Moscow this month, and also met Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov in Grozny. Dostum’s spokesman said. “We’re lacking air support, weapons, ammunition. We need a lot of backing and support to fight against terrorism.”

IRAN

Capt Ranjit Seth                             

IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL.

Iran has met a Thursday deadline for supplying information to the International Atomic Energy Agency for assessing its past nuclear work. Iran had agreed to take a set of steps as part of the nuclear agreement reached in July with six world powers. The agreement will relax sanctions on Iran in exchange for limits on the Iranian nuclear program to ensure it is peaceful. The IAEA now has until Dec. 15 to provide “the final assessment on the resolution of all past and present outstanding issues”.

Iran always has asserted that its nuclear work is peaceful. But doubts about past Iranian activities, had been an acute obstacle in the negotiations. The main issue concerned suspected experiments at Parchin, a restricted military site outside Tehran, on trigger devices that could be used in nuclear weapons.

Iran’s Parliament formally endorsed the nuclear agreement this week, and it was then ratified by Guardian Council, the final approval required from the Iranian side. The ratification by the veto-wielding Council was made within 36 hours after Parliament accepted the details of the agreement.

Iran will now start dismantling thousands of centrifuges and redesign a heavy-water reactor into a much less a dangerous light-water reactor. Iran will also take several other measures. It is therefore likely to take six to nine months for Iran to carry out all the steps required before sanctions are lifted.

PAKISTAN

Lt Col Anil Gorshi, SM**

US Pak Joint Statement, Issues of Concern for India.  US President Obama asked Pakistan to avoid development in its nuclear weapon programme that could increase that could increase risks and instability.  US President has been concerned about Pak development of new nuclear weapon system including small tactical nuclear weapons and has tried to persuade Pak to make a unilateral declaration of ‘restraint’.

Pakistan Stand on Nuclear Weapons.  Pak  will not accept limit to its weapons programme and argue that smaller tactical nuclear weapons are needed to deter a sudden attack by India.

Pak Nuclear Capabilities.  It is estimated Pakistan stockpile has grown to 110 to 130 warhead from 90 to 110 in 2011 and could reach to 220 to 250 by 2025 making it’s the world fifth largest nuclear weapons state.  As per Pak, Washington is demanding unreasonable  limits on its nuclear weapons, while not offering much in return apart from a hazy promise to consider Pak as a recognised recipient of nuclear technology.

Talks with Taliban.  US commended Pak for hosting and facilitating talks between the Afghan Govt  and Taliban in July 15.  US highlighted the opportunity taken by Pak willingness to facilitate a reconciliation process. India’s point of view is, it is open acknowledgement that Pak control the Taliban.  Pak should be castigated for not curbing the Taliban.

Resume India-Pak Talks.  US President and PM Pak stressed the improvement in Pak India bilateral relation, increasing prospects for lasting Peace Stability and prosperity in region.

India Stand.  Improvement in Pak India ties and call for a sustained and resilient dialogue which India is not keen on unless certain condition are fulfilled.

MIDDLE  EAST

Brig Ranjit Singh

IRAQ

Iraqi Forces Liberate Albu Risha, North of Ramadi from ISIS. The security forces were able to liberate Albu Risha area from ISIS, cut-off supply lines from North to ISIS.

Coalition Air Strikes Kill 35 ISIS Elements West Anbar.   Coalition air strikes targeted ISIS HQ in Heet district killing 35 ISIS elements.

12 Senior ISIS leaders killed in W Anbar.   Iraqi air strikes killed 12 ISIS elements and substantial numbers in the city of al-Qaim in W Anbar.

Large Military Buildup N of Ramadi.   A large military buildup is taking place N of Ramadi to launch an offensive to retake Albu Furj area N of Ramadi from ISIS.

500 Families Return to Liberated areas in W Anbar.    Around 500 displaced families have returned to the liberated areas in Karma district in W Anbar.

20 ISIS elements killed in Coalition air strikes 65 Km SW of Kirkuk.

Badr Militia kill 19 ISIS elements 60 Km N of  Salahuddin in violent clashes with ISIS.

US Special Forces free Approx 70 Hostages in an operation to rescue Kurdish hostages. One US soldier was killed in the operation. These people were possibly kidnapped by ISIS from SW of Kirkuk.

Russia Moving Closer to Iraq.   Ambassador of Iraq held discussion with the PM of Iraq for the need to have close ties between two countries. Russia expressed its support to rebuild all its institutions.

Russia supplies Iraq with means of protection against chemical weapons to fight against ISIS.

Comments.   Operations to retake Ramadi in gradual manner have been progressing well. The security forces supported by Coalition air strikes has gained ascendency over ISIS.

Large areas in W Anbar have been liberated from ISIS, displaced families have started returning which is indicative of success of operations.

Russia is gradually inching closer to Baghdad and likely to play an important role in fight  against  ISIS in the near future. Supply of protection equipment against chemical weapons is an indicator.

Russia could form a coalition with Iran to support operations against ISIS undermining the role of US led coalition.

SYRIA

Russia & Syrian Forces Intensify Air Strikes.   Russia & Syrian forces have intensified air strikes in Idlib, Homs &  Alleppo provinces killing scores of people.

Battles have Intensified between Govt Forces, Syrian Free Army & ISIS in the provinces of Idlib, Homs & Alleppo, killing 21 Govt forces soldiers, 28 ISIS & 16 SFA rebels.

Russia Offers FSA Air Strikes against ISIS. Russian Foreign minister stated that Russia was ready to provide air strikes to support its operations against ISIS and closely cooperate with US to fight ISIS. However, the offer has been turned down by FSA.

Jorden & Russia to Cooperate in Military Action in Syria.  Russia & Jorden have agreed to coordinate military operations in Syria including air strikes. Jorden has been funding opposition groups in Deraa in S Syria bordering Jorden. It is also part of US led coalition.

Russia Wants Syria to Prepare for Conduct of Parliamentary & Presidential Elections. External players cannot decide for Syria, we must force them come up with a plan for the country taking into consideration all religious, ethnic & political groups.

Comments.  Russia & Syrian Govt forces have intensified operations against rebel strongholds in Idlib, Hama & Alleppo Provinces.

Russian has offered to provide support to FSA through air strikes for operations against ISSI, which has been turned down.

Jordan & Russia have agreed to coordinate military operations in Syria, even though

Jordan is part of US led coalition. This is mainly done to secure its borders with Syria.

Russia has asked Syria to start preparation for elections which is not possible in the near future due to the prevailing situation. This is probably to obtain legitimacy to Assad regime against growing voices to oust Assad.

YEMEN

Sudanese troops join Arab coalition in Yemen. It is estimated that approx 6000 Sudanese troops have landed in Aden to join Saudi led coalition in Yemen.

Arab coalition sends weapon convoys ahead of Sana’a offensive.  Saudi Arabia, Qatar & UAE have sent substantial troops & sophisticated arms to Marib for offensive to retake Sana’a.

Intense battles continue in Taiz.  The focus of operations has now shifted to the city of Taiz where the resistance fighters are playing a key role. Arab coalition has managed to deliver its first shipment of sophisticated arms to fight Houthi rebels. Approx 40000 resistance fighters including women are holding the city against Houthi rebels.Yemeni forces alongwith resistence fighters have launched massive attacks against Houthi rebels making sweeping gains, killing 28 rebels, capturing 8 & liberating large parts. 

UN Envoy; No time to Waste for Yemen Peace Talks. UN envoy would begin working immediately with Govt & Houthi leaders to determine an agenda & date for peace talks.

Comments.   Govt forces & Saudi led coalition forces are in firm control of situation in Yemen. Build up for launch of offensive to retake Sana’a is progress.

The focus of operations has now shifted to city of Taiz which is witnessing heavy fighting. Govt forces alongwith resistance fighters have made major gains. Liberation of Taiz appears to be a matter of time.

UN sponsored peace talks would commence shortly as both the parties have agreed to UN proposal

MYANMAR

Gp Cap GD Sharma, VSM (Retd)

Myanmar Achieves Nationwide Cease fire Agreement with Country’s Ethnic armies and Rebels Groups.   The process of gradual democratization commenced with the ascendency of Thein Sein in Myanmar. In August11, he invited 15 Country’s ethnic armies and rebel groups to talks with an aim to integrate them in the national mainstream. Recently, he has signed an agreement    with eight groups out of fifteen such groups. Many ascribe this development to  the impending parliamentary election on 9 Nov 15 wherein, he wants to project his government as a progressive government which is committed to democracy as well as to give  proof of future  stability  in the government which often had to face armed opposition from the rebel groups in the past.  

Despite an effort for consensus building, still large number of rebel groups remain outside the ambit of the agreement. Reason for this is the conduct of the military which still has not forsaken stake in the governance of the country.  Corruption still remains high in the military. Military continues to be involved in business deals. As per news reports, military’s involvement in gems and precious stone mining runs in billions of dollars . The other reason relates to the Chinese angle. The groups which have generally stayed away from the deal are those which are located on the Eastern part of the country and alleged to be under the Chinese influence. Chinese use them to remain relevant for Myanmar   as otherwise  it  seems  to losing  leverage in Myanmar affairs as Myanmar has chosen to diversify their relations with other countries.

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