Author : CENJOWS Study Team

This is a scientific Net Assessment of the situation in Afghanistan and India’s critical security stakes in this region. A Taliban take-over in Kabul could cause the dominoes to fall not only in Central Asia but also in Pakistan—a recipe for security disaster for the region. This study analyses the drivers of change.

The Afghan War has been grossly under-resourced for far too-long. Using the Cross Impact Matrix Analysis Technique, the panels of experts have helped to crystallize the Alternative Military Futures for Afghanistan—both in the short and long term. This will majorly be premised on the success of the American troop surge. The experts gave 60 per cent chances to a scenario in which the US will try and scale down its troops before the next US Presidential elections. This assessment has substantially been vindicated by President Obama’s recent announcement of a surge of 30,000 additional troops and the clear determination that, in 18 months, US troops will start returning home.

The study underlines the critical factor that capacity building of the Afghan Armed Forces is the key to victory over the Al Qaida/Taliban combination. It is here that there is urgent need for action. It is felt that the optimal size of the Afghan National Army (ANA) must be 550,000; the strength at the time of the Soviet withdrawal. The then Afghan Army had held the Mujahedeen at bay for three years (before the Soviets pulled out the economic plug). India has a vital stake in the capacity building of the Afghan State and in ensuring its survival.

Think Tank India

Books

  • Think Tank India

    Rise of Islamists in Bangladesh

    Author : Col Amit Sinha

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  • Think Tank India

    Chinese Chequers in the Indian Ocean Region

    Author : Suhas Banerjee

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  • Think Tank India

    Understanding Iran

    Author : Air Marshal (Retd) Dhiraj Kukreja, AVSM,VSM

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  • Think Tank India

    Role of Pakistan in India's Energy Security

    Author : Major General (Retired) Ajay Kumar Chaturvedi, AVSM, VSM

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  • Think Tank India

    A Spectrum of Modern Warfare

    Author : Ajay Singh

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  • Think Tank India

    Indo-U.S. Defence Cooperation

    Author : Gp Capt (Retd) GD Sharma, VSM

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  • Think Tank India

    India's Strategic Stakes in Afghanistan

    Author : CENJOWS Study Team

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  • Think Tank India

    Space Security: Indian Perspective

    Author : Gp Capt (Retd) G D Sharma, VSM

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  • Think Tank India

    Integrated Force Projection by India

    Author : Vij Books India Pvt. Ltd.

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  • Think Tank India

    Defence Industrial Base

    Author : CENJOWS Study Team

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  • Think Tank India

    Armed Forces Tribunal Act

    Author : Vij Book Store

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  • Think Tank India

    Uniform Code of Military Justice

    Author : Col (Retd) R Balasubramaniam, VSM

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  • Think Tank India

    Leveraging India's Soft Power as a Strategic Resources

    Author : Col (Retd) A K Singh & Gp Capt S Tiwari

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  • Think Tank India

    War Against Global Terror

    Author : Col (Retd) S K Sharma, Senior Fellow CENJOWS

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  • Think Tank India

    Think Tank India

    Author : Col (Retd) S K Sharma, Senior Fellow CENJOWS

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  • Think Tank India

    India's Comprehensive National Power

    Author : CENJOWS Study Group

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  • Think Tank India

    Indian Way of War Fighting

    Author : Col (Retd) S K Sharma, Senior Fellow CENJOWS

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  • Think Tank India

    Water A Source for Future Conflicts

    Author : Maj Gen(Retd) AK Chaturvedi, AVSM, VSM

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  • Think Tank India

    India's Quest for Defence Equipment Policy

    Author : Lt Gen (Retd) H S lidder, PVSM, UYSM, YSM, VSM

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  • Think Tank India

    Implementation of RTI Act 2005 in Armed Forces and its Implications

    Author : Brig A K Vyas

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